The very first thing to pay attention to
Qualitative analysis and comparison of bookmakers’ odds with your own. An individual calculation is not always the best, but it is a sure sign, that the player is on the right track. If the odds presented slightly underestimate the chances of a particular team winning, according to the bettor, then it is worth further analysis to prove that this is the case. As a bonus, it is possible to get a profitable outcome with minimal risk. Understanding such tactics is not at all difficult, especially since there are now quite a few sources with statistics and even expert analytics to achieve success.
Most people continue to believe the “professionals”, hoping for a better financial situation based on someone else’s assumptions. A lot of profitable opportunities appear immediately after individual assessment of different events. Things will only get better with experience, and you should not ignore proven strategies and probability theory. Many people will say that even the most correct mathematical calculations will not help you calculate the perfect bet, and they would be right to some extent. Indeed, comparing the squads of a top club and an underdog, looking at the latest matches, estimating a low bookmaker’s odds and the outcome seems clear. But by no means always.
For example, the best team in the championship decides to field a second team against an underdog. The bookmakers raise the odds and most newcomers are already wary of this, preferring to bet on the weaker club. But even if no one wants the match, some players from the reserves might want to prove themselves in order to get into the main team. Accordingly even the youth team sometimes plays at the highest level, and bettors lose out due to a lack of attention to all the details. A simple example, of course, but a reflection of many mistakes made by gamblers.
If the bettor is able and willing to analyze information, compare facts, and take into account all the smallest nuances of the game, then he has every chance of winning. Indeed, it takes a lot of time and you can’t bet as a “professional capper” from social networks, 10-20 matches a day. But such an approach is not necessary. It is much better to make a 75-90% chance prediction with a big sum, than to play dozens of matches and trust your luck. Both of those cases can be disastrous, but knowing the ins and outs, it can be easily avoided.
The difficulties of getting started
The prospect of beating a bookie is alluring to the bettor because there’s a lot of money in the betting shops and you can make good money without making any special efforts. On the other hand, some bettors don’t believe it because the bank has plenty of expert analysts and specialists in other areas whose job is not to cheat the customers but to hedge the betting odds. For example, if the system fails and a top team’s match against an amateur club has an odds of 2 or higher, the office will take a serious loss. Similarly, in relation to minor errors in the form of +0.5-1 share of odds. As mentioned above, the lack of leaders is of course a significant indicator, but sometimes only goes to the benefit of the teams.
It cannot be said that at the start of your betting career you can only look at line-ups, recent matches and already have a chance of betting millions on events with an imaginary 90-99% passability. There are a lot of factors, which influence the final result in any sport. Also the perception of successful gamblers has changed recently. Handicaps, corridors, forks – all this is still in demand and will be popular for a long time. However, modern bettors are implementing their own strategies, perfecting classic approaches and using different algorithms to achieve success.
Where do you start? It’s quite simple – study the leagues, tournaments, teams and individual players. If we already have that, we should move on and look at the following parameters:
The basis of all fundamentals, which allows you to significantly reduce the risk of losing money in betting. Despite the simplicity of analyzing statistics, this process has a lot of nuances, which, even if taken into account, does not always work out the way we want. We don’t want to scare anyone, but we have to be honest – if you take only the basic stats, they will hardly help you make a good prediction. For example, in the last 5 games the A team has only won with good stats across the board. Given this data, the bookmaker offers low odds for the next match and the club loses. Why? In the last 5 matches the team has played the outsiders, and in the sixth match they faced a mid-table side, which was extremely motivated to earn points. We underestimated our opponent, maybe tiredness had an impact and all together led to defeat. Therefore it is worth looking not only at the statistics, but also at the standings, the names of the teams and the performances of both clubs, on whose match there is a desire to bet personal money.
In the past the referees who were assigned to a match would not be known until a few hours before the match. The exception is for top fixtures, where the whole world knows all the information, a couple of weeks before the game. You can see lots of information and statistics on yellow and red cards, total number of penalties, free kicks and so on. Therefore it is worth paying attention to the referees as well. Even with all sorts of modern systems in place to improve fair play, it’s the referees and their actions on the pitch that count.
Here it is hard to guess if it will be rain or promised sunshine. Even the weather forecast is not always right, so it is only relevant for playing in-play. If it rains, you can bet on total less. If it is very hot, it is also worth to bet on TM, but in case of stoppages, it is very probable to bet on TB.
Betting company odds also play a significant role. What you shouldn’t trust are the odds. The odds aren’t going to go up for obvious reasons, because they’re also risking a lot. What we are talking about here is the feverish “I bet on the favorite, because the betting company gives 1.1-1.3! This is a disease for all newbies, who want to make more money right away. If you analyze the match individually, you can find other outcomes with better odds, without going away from the expected result. For instance, the odds of the championship leader is 1.15. It is foolish to bet even large sums on it, although the probability of the prediction to win is very high. The bettor looks at the recent games, the team’s performance statistics and the success of the opponents in the championship, choosing the Betting odds of Goal (-2) at 1.9. The result is a solid 3-0 win for the team, and if you wager 1,000 $, the difference in the results immediately demonstrates the importance of good analysis.